Place
and individual behaviour
Formative cities: Early-life exposure to urban density and the making of universalist outlooks. With Z. Wei (Cambridge), N. Lee (LSE), A. McNeil (UCL).
Does place influence social and political outlooks? There is increasing evidence of a correlation, but little consensus on causation. Residents of large cities are, on average, more likely to hold values linked to universalism, rather than particularism. Yet, it has proven hard to isolate compositional effects from contextual effects. We provide novel causal evidence showing that exposure to urban density influences individual outlooks beyond compositional effects, but this influence is only driven by the environments where individuals spend their preadult life. We do this by using household panel data from both Switzerland and the UK, which allows us to combine ‘Movers’ and Two-Stage-Least-Squares research designs. We show with two different approaches that exposure to urban density before age 20 causally increases support for cosmopolitanism, gender equality and LGBTQ+ rights, highlighting the lasting influence of place early in life.
The Three Ds of Place: Density, Distance, Diversity and Cosmopolitan Attitudes in Germany. With F. Veit (Humboldt University Berlin), N. Lee (LSE).
Existing evidence points to a causal link between preadult exposure to place characteristics and later-in-life individual outlooks. In this paper we provide new theory of three key geographical dimensions which may shape ‘place effects’, namely density, distance, and diversity. We then test these in Germany using a Two-stage-least square estimator that allows us to control for individual sorting.
Urban design interventions to reduce fear of crime in public spaces have non-linear and gender-sensitive effects. With P. Navarrete (U. Chile) and T. Schlesser (Cambridge). Nature Cities: forthcoming.
Addressing crime and fear in public spaces is a priority in global urban development agendas. A family of approaches under the umbrella of Environmental Crime Prevention (ECP) suggests that modifying the built environment can reduce crime rates and improve safety perceptions. However, it remains debated whether these interventions are equally effective across genders, and what are the optimal type and intensity of ECP interventions needed to maximise safety perceptions while optimising costs. We evaluated the impact of varying intervention levels on perceived safety in neglected urban areas through a randomised experiment run in Chile using photo simulations and an adapted Positive and Negative Affective Schedule. Participants assessed three popular interventions: blind wall modifications, graffiti removal, and the integration of green infrastructure, each applied at different intensities across four types of public spaces. Based on 18,150 affective perception ratings from 2,028 respondents, our findings show that nature-based solutions targeting subconscious physiological responses to fear are more effective than interventions addressing conscious fear of crime, especially at higher treatment levels. The responses are highly gender-specific. Interventions were more effective for males than females, highlighting that environmental changes alone do not fully alleviate women’s perceived insecurity.
The global geography of climate attitudes, North and South. With F. Blok (TWS Partners).
Climate change is both materially and politically uneven, with impacts and perceptions shaped by geography. While subnational spatial divides in climate attitudes are well documented in high-income democracies, much less is known about whether these patterns hold in the Global South, where policy choices will be critical for both national development and global mitigation efforts. We combine a systematic review of the spatial drivers of climate opinion with an analysis of a new dataset covering around 40,000 individuals in 20 countries. We test whether urban–rural divides, distance to core cities and local economic structures influence climate perceptions. Our findings reveal both shared and divergent geographies of climate opinion between the Global North and South, highlighting why policy approaches developed in industrialised democracies cannot be assumed to translate seamlessly elsewhere.
Political economy
of spatial inequality
Local wealth inequality linked to political protests across the Global South. With Z. Wei (Cambridge), N. Lee (LSE), Rodríguez-Pose, A. (LSE). Link to WP. Nature: Reject and resubmit.
The political consequences of inequality have become a matter of mounting concern. Relative deprivation theory posits that frustration arising from comparisons with proximate reference groups can fuel protests. Yet research has concentrated overwhelmingly on the Global North, notwithstanding the acute wealth disparities experienced by the majority of the world’s population in the Global South. To address this gap, we assemble novel, fine-grained estimates of relative wealth at the 2.4 km × 2.4 km grid level to derive measures of local wealth inequality, which we link to over 645,000 georeferenced protest events recorded from 2014 to 2018. Exploiting variation within subnational regions, we document a robust, positive association between local wealth inequality and protest incidence. We show that the inequality–protest relationship is anchored in individuals’ immediate surroundings. As the spatial radius defining ‘local’ expands, the association weakens, highlighting the primacy of experienced inequality. We also find that the inequality-protest link is mediated by national characteristics. The study advances the social sciences by furnishing novel empirical evidence on the micro-geographic underpinnings of political instability, demonstrating that inequality’s political effects hinge on proximity, local class structure and national institutional environment.
Policy and political implications of uneven perceptions of spatial inequality. With Z. Wei (Cambridge), N. Lee (LSE), J. Gingrich (Oxford).
Spatial inequality remains high and continues to rise in many countries. In this study, we examine how perceptions of spatial inequality shape individuals’ political attitudes, policy preferences and behaviour related to local development. We elicit respondents’ beliefs about spatial inequality at different spatial scales. We then randomly assign respondents to different treatment arms, providing factual information about opportunity at one of the spatial scales, exposing the gap between perceived and actual opportunity across places. We subsequently measure a range of outcomes across treatment and control groups: respondents’ views on the extent of spatial inequality, their beliefs about its political, economic, and cultural consequences, and their political attitudes. We are currently developing the experimental setup.
Policy evaluation
of place-based and other spatially targeted actions
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Davide Luca 